ANZ Truckometer
The ANZ Truckometer is a set of two economic indicators derived using traffic volume data from around the country.
Traffic flows are a real time and real-world proxy for economic activity – particularly for the New Zealand economy, where a large proportion of freight is moved by road. It represents an extremely timely barometer of economic momentum. The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index shows a strong contemporaneous relationship to GDP, while the ANZ Light Traffic Index has a six month lead on activity as measured by GDP. Using statistical techniques we optimise the ANZ Truckometer indexes to map to quarterly GDP growth.
2026 editions
February 2026
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) eased 1.1% in January but is up a solid 3.6% year-on-year. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.4% in the month, but this was off the back of a 3.2% lift in December. It is up 2.0% y/y, with annual growth trending up.
2025 editions
December 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) eased 0.2% in November and is 3.3% higher than a year ago. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) eased 0.1% in the month, and is up 0.9% y/y.
November 2025
The Light Traffic Index rose 0.2% in October and is 3.2% higher than a year ago, with annual growth increasing rapidly. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index eased 0.2% in the month, but is still up 0.6% y/y.
October 2025
The Light Traffic Index rose 0.5% in September and is 2.6% higher than a year ago – the strongest annual growth since March 2024. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index rose 0.9% in the month, and is up 1.7% y/y.
September 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.0% in August and is 1.5% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.3% in the month, but is still up 2.6% y/y.
August 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.4% in July and is 0.9% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 1.8% in the month, and is up 2.8% y/y.
July 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.3% in June and is 0.9% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) also fell 1.3% in the month, but is up 3.0% y/y.
June 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 0.5% in May and is up 0.3% versus a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 3.0%, and is up 1.7% y/y.
May 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) lifted 0.6% in April and is unchanged versus a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.7%, and is up 1.7% y/y.
April 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) continues to bounce around a fairly flat trend, up 0.1% in March and down 0.4% y/y. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.1%, to be up 2.3% y/y.
March 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) continues to bounce around a flat trend, up 0.4% in February and just 0.1% y/y. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 0.2%, which could be characterised as a strong result given it followed a strong lift the previous month. It is up nearly 5% y/y.
February 2025
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) continues to bounce around a flat trend, while the more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) jumped 4.0% in January after a modest rise in December. Heavy traffic is up 4.1% y/y, while light traffic is up just 0.2% y/y.
2024 editions
December 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) was unchanged in November, while the more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.5%. Heavy traffic is up 1.2% y/y, while light traffic is up 0.1% y/y.
November 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.3% m/m in October, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 3.0% m/m. Heavy traffic is down 0.1% y/y, while light traffic is down 0.4% y/y.
October 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.0% m/m in September, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.8%. Heavy traffic is up 0.6% y/y, while light traffic is down 1.1% y/y.
September 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) lifted 0.6% m/m, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 0.7%
August 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) lifted 1.5% m/m in July, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) recovered much of its June fall, rising 6.1%.
July 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 2.2% m/m in June, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell a sharp 5.2% m/m on top of a fall in May.
June 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 0.4% m/m in May, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.3% m/m.
May 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.3% m/m in April, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 0.3% m/m after falling the previous month. Unusually, the trend in heavy traffic has been steadier than GDP data over the last couple of years. Unlike per capita GDP, it looks nothing like 2008.
April 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.1% m/m in March, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.8% m/m after a couple of strong months. While both indices have a mild upward trend, in per capita terms light traffic is trending down while heavy traffic is pretty flat.
March 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.9% m/m in February, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.4% in the month. While both indices have a mild upward trend, in per capita terms they are both trending down.
February 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.6% m/m in January, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.7% in the month. The Heavy Traffic Index is holding up better in per capita terms.
January 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 2.2% m/m in December, and is down 1.4% for the quarter, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.1% in the month, and flat-lined in the quarter. We estimate that both light and heavy traffic has fallen over the past year in per capita terms.
2023 editions
December 2023: On trend for Christmas (PDF 620KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.7% m/m in November, following two months of falls, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 1.0% m/m. While monthly moves were consistent with recent trends, it’s notable that the upward trend in heavy traffic has remained pretty flat despite strong population growth, consistent with an economy that is slowing in per capita terms.
November 2023: Staying in its lane (PDF 620KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.5% m/m in October, a similar fall to September, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 0.6% m/m after a decent fall in the preceding month. The trend in heavy traffic is fairly flat despite strong population growth, consistent with an economy that is slowing in per capita terms.
October 2023: Spring pothole (PDF 596KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.3% m/m in September, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 3.5% m/m. But both were coming off decent lifts the previous month. In trend terms the light traffic is showing more momentum than heavy traffic, probably reflecting strong population growth.
September 2023: A late-winter flurry (PDF 596KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.6% m/m in August, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rebounded 6.2% m/m. So much for heavy traffic starting to signal a marked slowdown! Volatility remains the theme.
August 2023: Heavy traffic sinking (PDF 596KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.6% m/m in July, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 3.0% m/m. The fall in the Heavy Traffic Index over the past two months accords with anecdotal evidence of momentum in the domestic economy taking a leg lower. Weaker logging activity likely also played a part.
July 2023: Bumping along (PDF 588KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.3% m/m in June, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.0%. We now have the full dataset for the June quarter. Traffic data is suggesting low but positive GDP growth in Q2, consistent with our current forecast.
June 2023: Up hill and down dale (PDF 612KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 0.9% m/m in May, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 1.8%. With two months in, traffic data is suggesting a relatively flat Q2 for economic activity.
May 2023: Heavy weather (PDF 700KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 2.8% m/m in April, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.2%. Q1 traffic data suggests a small lift in activity in the quarter, consistent with our forecast. Falling traffic volumes in April marked a weak start to Q2, but weather could again be playing a role.
April 2023: Marching on (PDF 704KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 4.6% in March, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.7%. Q1 traffic data will be cyclone affected, but it is suggesting a small lift in activity in the quarter, consistent with our forecast.
March 2023: Spinning (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 2.9% in February, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 0.7%. The traffic data correctly identified a fall in GDP in Q4. Q1 data will be cyclone affected, but so far is consistent with our expectation of a reasonably flat quarter in seasonally adjusted terms.
February 2023: Dropping back to trend (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 0.7% in January, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 0.8%. Over Q4, the HTI fell 1.5%, while the LTI fell 1% q/q. Our current GDP forecast is for a lift of 0.3%; traffic data suggest downside risk.
2022 editions
October 2022: A solid finish to the quarter (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted another 1.9% in September, while the Heavy Traffic Index eased 3.3% after jumping strongly last month. We now have a full quarter for the Heavy Traffic Index. This lifted 1.6% over the quarter vs our current Q3 GDP forecast of 0.4% q/q.
September 2022: A turn of speed (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index bounced 5.4% in August, while the Heavy Traffic Index jumped 7%. It’s likely that illness and weather are currently bigger factors in the monthly ups and downs than macroeconomics.
August 2022: A tough winter (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 1.7% in July, while Heavy Traffic fell 0.1%. Light traffic is now back to trend, whereas heavy traffic is below trend.
July 2022: Struggling to grow (PDF 408KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 3.4% in June, while Heavy Traffic fell 2.7%. The new public holiday may have caused a bit of noise in the data. Q2 data is now complete; the Heavy Traffic Index suggests it’s a line ball call whether GDP managed to grow at all in the quarter. That suggests a chance of a technical recession, given the economy shrank 0.2% in Q1. But there are lots more GDP indicators to come.
June 2022: Drive on (PDF 456KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 0.1% in May, while Heavy Traffic fell 1.7%. With two of three months of data in, the traffic data is suggesting GDP growth was probably positive in Q2 as well.
May 2022: On the road again (PDF 404KB)
The Light Traffic Index jumped 8.3% in April, while the Heavy Traffic rose 2.3%. The data is consistent with rebounding movement of both people and goods as the impact of the Omicron outbreak wanes.
April 2022: Hunkering down (PDF 408KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 1.8% in March, while the Heavy Traffic rose 1.8%. The data is consistent with people reducing their movement as the Omicron wave spread throughout New Zealand over the month.
March 2022: Gradually normalising (PDF 408KB)
The Light Traffic Index rose 4.4% in February, while the Heavy Traffic rose 1.4%. COVID disruptions are likely to continue to cause volatility in both traffic data and economic activity.
February 2022: Steady start to the year (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 0.9% in January, while the Heavy Traffic fell 0.5%. COVID disruptions are likely to continue to cause volatility in both traffic data and economic activity.
January 2022: A window of relative normality (PDF 388KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 15.7% in December as the Auckland border opened, while the Heavy Traffic eased 0.6% m/m. COVID disruptions are likely to continue to cause volatility in both traffic data and economic activity.