ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is a monthly measure of consumer confidence across New Zealand households and how this affects their spending behaviour.

 

 

2023 editions

November 2023: Better, but still subdued (PDF 768KB)
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 4 points in November to 91.9, still a very subdued level. The biggest jump was in the question about whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item. However, insofar as this question has overstated headwinds to retail spending in the high inflation environment, a rebound (to still-low levels) is unlikely to mean that the pressure on retailers is about to ease. Inflation expectations were little changed at 4.6%.

October 2023: Creeping higher (PDF 752KB)
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 2 points in October to 88.1, with mixed moves across the questions. By far the biggest jump was in the question about expected economic conditions “in NZ as a whole”. Tellingly, the key question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, fell 6 points to -38%. Inflation expectations rose 0.3ppt to 4.5%, undoing last month’s fall.

September 2023: Not much spring in their step (PDF 752KB)
Consumer confidence rose 1 point in September to 86.4, with small improvements across most questions. The exception was whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item (down 1 point to -32%). Inflation expectations fell 0.4ppt to 4.2%, its lowest read since March 2021. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted slightly in September, but remains at very low levels. 

August 2023: In limbo (PDF 732KB)
Consumer confidence rose 1 point in August to 85.0, with the lift driven by an increase in the question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, which rose from -39% to -31%. Inflation expectations were virtually unchanged at 4.6%.

July 2023: More spending caution evident (PDF 676KB)
Consumer confidence fell 2 points in July to 83.7, with the fall driven by the question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, which fell from -27% to -39%. That doesn’t bode well for retailers. Inflation expectations bounced back almost completely from their sharp fall last month, rising from 4.3% back up to 4.7% – still trending lower, however, and well off their high of over 6% in late-2021.

June 2023: Inflation and rate relief (PDF 628KB)
Consumer confidence lifted 6 points in June to 85.5, still a very low level, but the highest read since January last year. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, rose 7 points to 27. Inflation expectations dropped sharply from 4.8% to 4.3%. Consumers don’t get to set prices but they are half of the wage-negotiation process, so the RBNZ will be very pleased to see that.

May 2023: Inflation expectations fall (PDF 732KB)
Consumer confidence was basically flat in May at 79.2, an extremely low level. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, fell 3 points to 34. Inflation expectations eased from 5.2% to 4.8%. That’s only the second time since mid-2021 that they’ve dipped under the 5% mark.

April 2023: Not much autumn cheer (PDF 688KB)
Consumer confidence lifted 1 point in April to 79.3, still an extremely low level.
The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 1 point to ‑31. Inflation expectations eased from 5.4% to 5.2%. They have been bouncing around a narrow range for the last six months.

March 2023: Limbo (PDF 668KB)

Consumer confidence eased 2 points in March to 77.7. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 3 points to 32%, still very low. Inflation expectations rose from 5.2% to 5.4%. That’s the highest read in nine months. That won’t please the RBNZ, though they put more weight on business expectations.

February 2023: Still downbeat (PDF 680KB)

Consumer confidence eased 3 points in February to 79.8. From a glass-half-full perspective that’s still above its December low of 73.8, but the level is very low. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, fell 7 points to 35%, the lowest level since the 2020 lockdown. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.2%.

January 2023: A bounce off extreme lows (PDF 684KB)

Consumer confidence jumped 9 points in January to 83.4, more than undoing its December fall. The lift was driven by the forward-looking questions. The level is still very low. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 5 points to 28%. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.3%.