ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is a monthly measure of consumer confidence across New Zealand households and how this affects their spending behaviour.



2024 editions

June 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eased 2 points in June. At 83, confidence is miles below the 20-year average of 114. Inflation expectations bounced from 3.8% back up to 4.2%. It’s volatile, but gradually trending lower. Expected house price inflation ticked up from 3.2% to 3.4%.

May 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence lifted 4 points in May, perhaps as the shock of the “recession” headlines wore off somewhat. That said, 84.9 is a very weak level, with the historical average sitting above 110. Possibly also contributing to the lift in confidence, inflation expectations eased from 4.4% to 3.8%, the lowest read since October 2020. Expected house price inflation eased from 3.5% to 3.2%.

April 2024

Consumer confidence deteriorated in April, led by a pessimistic turn in the forward-looking components of the survey. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points to 82.1, close to lows seen during the Global Financial Crisis, but still slightly above the more recent pandemic lows. Wellington led the monthly deterioration in confidence and is the most downbeat region overall, with the lowest inflation expectations and the second-lowest willingness to buy a major household item. Nationwide, inflation expectations eased from 4.5% to 4.4%, while expected house price inflation lifted from 3.4% to 3.5%. 

March 2024

The steady improvement in consumer confidence over recent months took a blow this month. ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence fell 9 points in March to 86.4, with a fall across most questions, likely affected by recession headlines. Late-month responses were markedly weaker than those that preceded the GDP data. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5%, while expected house price inflation fell from 4.1% to 3.4%. This series has no predictive power for house prices, but is a lens on the “wealth effect” on spending.

February 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose another 1 point in February to 94.5, driven by a lift in perceptions of future conditions. Inflation expectations lifted for a second month, up from 4.3% to 4.5%.

January 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 1 point in January to 93.6. Perceptions of current conditions jumped, but confidence about the future fell. Inflation expectations bounced back, lifting from 3.9% to 4.3%.