ANZ Economic Outlook

ANZ's Economic Outlook publications are comprehensive projections for the macro-economy and trends in New Zealand’s financial markets.

2021 editions

September 2021: Two steps forward, one step back (PDF 1.40MB)
The discovery of the Delta variant of COVID-19 circulating in the New Zealand community has brought our spectacular economic recovery to a sharp stop. And it was spectacular – GDP grew 1.6% in Q1, exceeding pre-pandemic levels, unemployment fell from 5.3% to a post-2008 low of 4%, wage inflation was building, and the RBNZ’s sectoral factor model of core inflation had risen above 2% for the first time since the GFC. But now here we sit, back in Level 4 lockdown. So is it all over for the economic boom? Or is this just a rude interruption of unknown duration until we can get on with it?

June 2021: Finding potential (PDF 1.17MB)
New Zealand’s economy is well on the way to recovery. Successful virus containment meant we could come out of lockdown much faster than our trading partners. This, combined with solid labour market outcomes, has seen economic activity rebound to such an extent that some sectors are now running into capacity constraints. Our capacity indicators show that the output gap has likely closed, which is supporting inflationary pressure

February 2021: The journey back (PDF 716KB)
Compared to 2019, the economy is running a different vehicle on a different fuel, on a different road, leading to a different destination. This is not a textbook demand shock, nor a textbook supply shock. Getting a handle on the state of the economy is challenging, and it's not going to get any easier in 2021! The elevator pitch: 2021 will be a bit of a sideways year (with noise in the data); monetary policy has done enough (barring downside risks); and central government has its work cut out to address inequality and the housing crisis.