ANZ Economic Outlook

ANZ's Economic Outlook publications are comprehensive projections for the macro-economy and trends in New Zealand’s financial markets.

2022 editions

May 2022: Rebalancing act (PDF 1.85MB)
The economy is transitioning from domestic demand that was overstimulated (with the benefit of hindsight), to a rapid withdrawal of monetary stimulus in order to tame the inflation beast. The reopening of our border will hopefully offset some of the slowing in domestic demand, but it’ll be only a partial offset. It’s a fine balance for the RBNZ as they weigh up the risk of oversteering (engineering a hard landing for economic activity and inflation) against the risk that inflation pressures continue to spiral. At some point in the not-too-distant future, the OCR will be back at a level where these risks are a little more balanced, and decisions will be more difficult.

February 2022: Turning points (PDF 1.69MB)
We're now about two years into the pandemic. While the economic implications are now better understood, and the worst of the data volatility is behind us (touch wood), there is still plenty of scope for surprises. Our focus has shifted from trying to gauge lockdown impacts, and the likely degree of economic scarring associated with them, to trying to gauge the likely evolution of the many drivers that influence both the supply and demand sides of the economy. This isn't anything new when it comes to the art of economic forecasting, but the abnormally long list of turning points for key drivers of economic activity certainly adds to the challenge.