ANZ Economic Outlook

ANZ's Economic Outlook publications are comprehensive projections for the macro-economy and trends in New Zealand’s financial markets.

2024 editions

February 2024

The economy has cooled, but there’s still a long descent to 2% inflation to navigate from here. High interest rates are cooling demand and have caused GDP data to look recessionary. However, despite the weakness, capacity pressures need to weaken further in order to get inflation sustainably back to 2%. It’s more challenging than usual for the RBNZ to calibrate its policy response, given the large shocks that are still buffeting the economy and old pandemic-era shocks that are still working their way through. Let’s dig into some key drivers in a little more detail.