ANZ NZ Merchant and Card Spending

Overall card spend growth rose 0.1% m/m in March, to be up just 0.6% y/y, considerably lower than the rate of inflation (2.5%). This month we have changed the categories to match those used for Stats NZ’s electronic cards transactions data. The motor vehicles and fuel category is mostly a petrol price story, but apparel and hospitality reflect still-cautious consumers.

Overall card spend growth rose 1% m/m in February, a welcome result after recent weak outturns. The types of spending most sensitive to interest rates (housing, durables, and discretionary spending, including clothing) are still experiencing the largest falls versus a year earlier. Tourism categories of spending are well down versus a year ago. Business goods and services are now top for annual growth.

There is likely a range of views out there about whether Valentine’s Day spending is a luxury or a necessity, but either way, ANZ card spending at jewellers and florists saw its usual jump leading up to and on Valentine’s Day, 14 February. The data shows a decent bump for jewellers, and a dramatic annual spike for florists. Jewellery spending hasn’t reached the heights of 2021 and 2022, but florist spend has surpassed previous years. However, this is nominal data, meaning it captures price changes as well as volumes of sales.

Overall card spend growth slipped a little further in January, down 0.9% y/y on top of a 0.6% y/y fall in December. Generally speaking, the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates (housing, durables, and discretionary spending) are still experiencing the largest falls. Tourism categories of spending are well down versus a year ago. Utilities & Repairs is at the top of the growth stakes, but reflects a mix of ups and downs, as opposed to sector-wide momentum.

Overall card spend was down 0.6% y/y in December, and up a respectable 0.5% in the month (we report the data as a three-month average). Generally speaking, the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates (housing, durables, and discretionary spending) are still experiencing the largest falls. Tourism categories of spending are well down versus a year ago, as they have been for the last five months. 

We’ve analysed ANZ card spending data to examine how Black Friday turnover has evolved this year relative to previous years for selected categories. The charts show spending (7-day rolling total) for the past six years, aligned through time such that the 7 days starting on Black Friday is shaded (Black Friday is the fourth Friday of November, which was 29 November in 2024). Overall, Black Friday sales appear to be sneaking earlier and earlier across a range of spending types.  While the level of spending is still subdued, the Black Friday pick-up in spending was pretty respectable compared to previous years, on the whole. 

Overall card spend was down 1.2% y/y in November, and up just 0.1% in the month (we report the data as a three-month average). Generally speaking, the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates (housing, durables, and discretionary spending) are still experiencing the largest falls. Tourism categories of spending are also well down versus a year ago, but it had a decent lift in the month.

Overall card spend was still down 1.2% y/y in October, but the annual fall is stable. Generally speaking, the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates (housing, durables, discretionary spending) are still experiencing the largest falls. Tourism categories of spending are also well down versus a year ago, likely reflecting more cautious domestic tourism and business travel. Operators will be hoping for a strong summer international tourist season.

Overall card spend was still down 1.3% y/y in September, but the annual fall is easing. Generally speaking, the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates are experiencing the largest falls. Tourism categories of spending are also well down versus a year earlier, likely reflecting more cautious domestic tourism (and business travel). Operators will be hoping for a strong summer international tourist season.

Overall card spend is down 1.8% y/y in August as soft demand takes its toll. Generally speaking, the types of spending most sensitive to interest rates are experiencing the largest falls: durables, clothing and other discretionary spending, and housing.  The flattening off in the tourism recovery is also evident in the data.

Annual growth in overall card spend was just 0.3% y/y in July, suggesting sales volumes are still falling. Spending on durables, discretionary spending categories, clothing and categories related to the housing market remains particularly weak. Tourism-related spending continues to ease (seasonally adjusted) with spend 3.5% lower than a year earlier. Spending on miscellaneous services, miscellaneous goods and utilities/repairs are the only categories where annual growth remains positive.

Annual growth has fallen under 1% y/y in June, suggesting sales volumes are still falling. Spending on durables, discretionary spending categories, clothing and categories related to the housing market is particularly weak. Tourism-related spending saw a particularly sharp fall in June (seasonally adjusted) with spend lower than a year earlier. Spending on miscellaneous services, miscellaneous goods and utilities/repairs are the only categories where annual growth remains positive.

Annual growth was just 2.3% y/y in May, despite inflation running at a considerably higher pace. Durables, discretionary spending categories and clothing continue to lag. The impetus from tourism-related spending has turned into a drag on growth. Miscellaneous services is one category gaining momentum, with strength here driven by finance services.

Annual growth slowed to 2.5% y/y in April, which continues the downward trend in place since the borders reopened and tourist dollars flooded the terminals. Durables and clothing continue to lag and pressure is mounting on consumers’ discretionary spending. The impetus from tourism-related spending is starting to wane. Miscellaneous services is the only category gaining momentum.

Annual growth in total spend is 2.5%, lower than last month and well below where the rate of inflation is expected to have been in Q1. Changes in the 3-month average were a mix of rises and falls. Durables and discretionary spending like clothing continue to be particularly exposed to more caution on the part of consumers. Tourism-related spending remains a bright spot, up more than 6% y/y. But now the summer season is behind us, that annual change is much less meaningful in terms of revenue growth.

Annual growth in all categories of spending except clothing is back in the black. Annual growth in total spend is 3.5%, still lower than the rate of inflation. Changes in the 3-month average were mostly positive. Spending on clothing remains down from a year earlier, but the annual fall eased from -3% to -1.6%. Durables and discretionary spending are also still feeling the pinch from more cautious consumers. Tourism-related spending remains a bright spot, up around 9% y/y.

Annual growth in most categories of spending is back in the black. Annual growth in total spend lifted from 2.5% to 3.5%. Recent momentum as measured by the change in the 3-month average was also stronger. Population growth is likely a big driver. Spending on durables and clothing remains weak, but the annual fall softened from -5.3% in December to -3.0%. Tourism-related spending remains a bright spot. Annual growth in Misc Services was driven particularly by finance services and insurance services.

Annual growth in most categories of spending was a mix of ups and downs in December. Annual growth in total spend eased from 2.6% to 2.5%. Recent momentum as measured by the change in the 3-month average was generally a little stronger. Spending on durables and clothing remains particularly weak, while spending on utilities and miscellaneous spending is growing faster than other types of spending. Note, however, that price growth (inflation) also affects nominal spending. Tourism-related spending is a relative bright spot.

Annual growth in most categories of spending continued to slip in November. Annual growth in total spend dropped from 3.2% to 2.6%. Recent momentum is a mix of small ups and downs – pretty weak considering population growth well in excess of 2% and still-strong inflation. The flattening off in spending is also evident in the levels charts on the next two slides. Spending on miscellaneous services continues to outperform. Spending related to housing is lacklustre, and clothing retail continues to weaken. 

Spending growth in most categories was positive in October (seasonally adjusted). However, the lift versus last month has more to do with base effects (a very weak July falling out of the 3-month average) than any real strength in spending in the month of October. Spending on miscellaneous services grew strongly.  The tourism rebound has flattened out somewhat, but recent growth rates were never going to be sustainable. Clothing retail remains particularly weak, reflecting more cautious consumers.

Spending growth in most categories eked out small positive gains in September. Spending on business goods and services continues to outperform. Tourism remains a bright spot in annual change terms. At the other end of the scale, clothing spending is lower than a year ago.

Most categories of spending experienced a small uptick in August following some softer months. Despite this, total spending slipped slightly after seasonal adjustment. 

ANZ card spending data shows spending across the board losing momentum, with more discretionary items such as clothing under particular pressure. Tourism-related spending continues to outperform, while housing-related spend is generally struggling. Barbieheimer and Taylor Swift provided bright spots.

Tourism-related spending continues to be, for the most part, significantly stronger than a year ago. Housing-related spending continues to be under pressure, though there’s some evidence DIY is holding up. Discretionary spending is mixed. Clothing retail is struggling. Counter-cyclical retail is outperforming as households look to cut costs. Goods retail is a mixed bag. Price changes dominate some categories, e.g. fuel (lower prices) and insurance (higher prices). Business services are also mixed. Spending on printing is well down. In the services space, education is an outperformer as foreign students make a comeback. The relative decline of online shopping is evident in courier services.