ANZ Truckometer
The ANZ Truckometer is a set of two economic indicators derived using traffic volume data from around the country.
Traffic flows are a real time and real-world proxy for economic activity – particularly for the New Zealand economy, where a large proportion of freight is moved by road. It represents an extremely timely barometer of economic momentum. The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index shows a strong contemporaneous relationship to GDP, while the ANZ Light Traffic Index has a six month lead on activity as measured by GDP. Using statistical techniques we optimise the ANZ Truckometer indexes to map to quarterly GDP growth.
2024 editions
December 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) was unchanged in November, while the more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.5%. Heavy traffic is up 1.2% y/y, while light traffic is up 0.1% y/y.
November 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.3% m/m in October, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 3.0% m/m. Heavy traffic is down 0.1% y/y, while light traffic is down 0.4% y/y.
October 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.0% m/m in September, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.8%. Heavy traffic is up 0.6% y/y, while light traffic is down 1.1% y/y.
September 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) lifted 0.6% m/m, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 0.7%
August 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) lifted 1.5% m/m in July, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) recovered much of its June fall, rising 6.1%.
July 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 2.2% m/m in June, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell a sharp 5.2% m/m on top of a fall in May.
June 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 0.4% m/m in May, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.3% m/m.
May 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.3% m/m in April, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 0.3% m/m after falling the previous month. Unusually, the trend in heavy traffic has been steadier than GDP data over the last couple of years. Unlike per capita GDP, it looks nothing like 2008.
April 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.1% m/m in March, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.8% m/m after a couple of strong months. While both indices have a mild upward trend, in per capita terms light traffic is trending down while heavy traffic is pretty flat.
March 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.9% m/m in February, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.4% in the month. While both indices have a mild upward trend, in per capita terms they are both trending down.
February 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.6% m/m in January, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.7% in the month. The Heavy Traffic Index is holding up better in per capita terms.
January 2024
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 2.2% m/m in December, and is down 1.4% for the quarter, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.1% in the month, and flat-lined in the quarter. We estimate that both light and heavy traffic has fallen over the past year in per capita terms.
2023 editions
December 2023: On trend for Christmas (PDF 620KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.7% m/m in November, following two months of falls, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 1.0% m/m. While monthly moves were consistent with recent trends, it’s notable that the upward trend in heavy traffic has remained pretty flat despite strong population growth, consistent with an economy that is slowing in per capita terms.
November 2023: Staying in its lane (PDF 620KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.5% m/m in October, a similar fall to September, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 0.6% m/m after a decent fall in the preceding month. The trend in heavy traffic is fairly flat despite strong population growth, consistent with an economy that is slowing in per capita terms.
October 2023: Spring pothole (PDF 596KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.3% m/m in September, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 3.5% m/m. But both were coming off decent lifts the previous month. In trend terms the light traffic is showing more momentum than heavy traffic, probably reflecting strong population growth.
September 2023: A late-winter flurry (PDF 596KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.6% m/m in August, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rebounded 6.2% m/m. So much for heavy traffic starting to signal a marked slowdown! Volatility remains the theme.
August 2023: Heavy traffic sinking (PDF 596KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.6% m/m in July, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 3.0% m/m. The fall in the Heavy Traffic Index over the past two months accords with anecdotal evidence of momentum in the domestic economy taking a leg lower. Weaker logging activity likely also played a part.
July 2023: Bumping along (PDF 588KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 0.3% m/m in June, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 1.0%. We now have the full dataset for the June quarter. Traffic data is suggesting low but positive GDP growth in Q2, consistent with our current forecast.
June 2023: Up hill and down dale (PDF 612KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 0.9% m/m in May, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 1.8%. With two months in, traffic data is suggesting a relatively flat Q2 for economic activity.
May 2023: Heavy weather (PDF 700KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 2.8% m/m in April, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 2.2%. Q1 traffic data suggests a small lift in activity in the quarter, consistent with our forecast. Falling traffic volumes in April marked a weak start to Q2, but weather could again be playing a role.
April 2023: Marching on (PDF 704KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 4.6% in March, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) rose 2.7%. Q1 traffic data will be cyclone affected, but it is suggesting a small lift in activity in the quarter, consistent with our forecast.
March 2023: Spinning (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 2.9% in February, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) fell 0.7%. The traffic data correctly identified a fall in GDP in Q4. Q1 data will be cyclone affected, but so far is consistent with our expectation of a reasonably flat quarter in seasonally adjusted terms.
February 2023: Dropping back to trend (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 0.7% in January, while the Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) lifted 0.8%. Over Q4, the HTI fell 1.5%, while the LTI fell 1% q/q. Our current GDP forecast is for a lift of 0.3%; traffic data suggest downside risk.
2022 editions
October 2022: A solid finish to the quarter (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted another 1.9% in September, while the Heavy Traffic Index eased 3.3% after jumping strongly last month. We now have a full quarter for the Heavy Traffic Index. This lifted 1.6% over the quarter vs our current Q3 GDP forecast of 0.4% q/q.
September 2022: A turn of speed (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index bounced 5.4% in August, while the Heavy Traffic Index jumped 7%. It’s likely that illness and weather are currently bigger factors in the monthly ups and downs than macroeconomics.
August 2022: A tough winter (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 1.7% in July, while Heavy Traffic fell 0.1%. Light traffic is now back to trend, whereas heavy traffic is below trend.
July 2022: Struggling to grow (PDF 408KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 3.4% in June, while Heavy Traffic fell 2.7%. The new public holiday may have caused a bit of noise in the data. Q2 data is now complete; the Heavy Traffic Index suggests it’s a line ball call whether GDP managed to grow at all in the quarter. That suggests a chance of a technical recession, given the economy shrank 0.2% in Q1. But there are lots more GDP indicators to come.
June 2022: Drive on (PDF 456KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 0.1% in May, while Heavy Traffic fell 1.7%. With two of three months of data in, the traffic data is suggesting GDP growth was probably positive in Q2 as well.
May 2022: On the road again (PDF 404KB)
The Light Traffic Index jumped 8.3% in April, while the Heavy Traffic rose 2.3%. The data is consistent with rebounding movement of both people and goods as the impact of the Omicron outbreak wanes.
April 2022: Hunkering down (PDF 408KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 1.8% in March, while the Heavy Traffic rose 1.8%. The data is consistent with people reducing their movement as the Omicron wave spread throughout New Zealand over the month.
March 2022: Gradually normalising (PDF 408KB)
The Light Traffic Index rose 4.4% in February, while the Heavy Traffic rose 1.4%. COVID disruptions are likely to continue to cause volatility in both traffic data and economic activity.
February 2022: Steady start to the year (PDF 412KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 0.9% in January, while the Heavy Traffic fell 0.5%. COVID disruptions are likely to continue to cause volatility in both traffic data and economic activity.
January 2022: A window of relative normality (PDF 388KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 15.7% in December as the Auckland border opened, while the Heavy Traffic eased 0.6% m/m. COVID disruptions are likely to continue to cause volatility in both traffic data and economic activity.
2021 editions
December 2021: On the road to recovery (PDF 388KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 10.6% in November, while the Heavy Traffic lifted 4.6% m/m. The Truckometer indexes should once more be a decent GDP indicator from early next year when travel restrictions are lifted.
November 2021: Win some lose some (PDF 392KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 6.4% in October, while the Heavy Traffic lifted 1.0% m/m. Differing regional lockdown restrictions mean that the Truckometer indexes are unlikely to be a reliable GDP indicator in the near term.
October 2021: It’s a start (PDF 388KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 6.4% in September, while the Heavy Traffic rebounded 13.4% m/m. Differing regional lockdown restrictions mean that the Truckometer indexes are unlikely to be a reliable GDP indicator in the near term.
September 2021: Braking but not broken (PDF 436KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 27.6% in August, while the Heavy Traffic fell 18.1% m/m. The fall in traffic will once more be much larger than the slowdown in actual economic activity during lockdown.
August 2021: Slowly returning to normal (PDF 396KB)
The Light Traffic Index eased 0.8% in July, while the Heavy Traffic fell 1.1% m/m. Transport disruptions and the tourism stop continue to affect the data, particularly for heavy traffic.
July 2021: Normalising but still volatile (PDF 396KB)
The Light Traffic Index eased 1.4% in June, while the Heavy Traffic rose 1.2% m/m. Transport disruptions and the tourism stop continue to affect the data.
June 2021: Honking (PDF 400KB)
The Light Traffic Index rose 2.1% in May from revised April data, while the Heavy Traffic fell 4.8% m/m, also with revisions. The traffic indexes remain volatile, with global and international transport disruptions weakening the signal from the data.
May 2021: Trucking along (PDF 396KB)
The Light Traffic Index rose 0.6% in April, while the Heavy Traffic fell 1.2% m/m.
April 2021: Traffic noise (PDF 400KB)
The Light Traffic Index rose 1.7% in March, while the Heavy Traffic rose 2.8% m/m. Both traffic indexes will be very volatile in the near term due to COVID disruptions.
March 2021: Trucking on in February (PDF 344KB)
The Light Traffic Index rose 1% in February, while the Heavy Traffic rose 2% m/m. Both traffic indexes are higher than a year ago, but the overshoot continues to dissipate gradually.
February 2021: Back to trend (PDF 336KB)
The Light Traffic Index was unchanged in January, while the Heavy Traffic fell 3.8% m/m.
January 2021: 2020 vision in the rear-view mirror (PDF 316KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 0.6% in December, while the Heavy Traffic rose 0.4% m/m. For the December quarter as a whole, the Heavy Traffic Index fell 2.6%. This is consistent with our forecast of a mild fall in GDP following the massive Q3 bounce.
2020 editions
December 2020: Slipping (PDF 316KB)
The lack of tourists is becoming evident in car traffic, while the Heavy Traffic Index is suggesting a stonking Q3 GDP outturn, but possibly negative growth in Q4. The Light Traffic Index fell 3.1% in November, while the Heavy Traffic eased 0.3% m/m.
November 2020: Settling down (PDF 308KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted a further 0.6% in October, while the Heavy Traffic eased 3.0% as traffic settled following the second Auckland lockdown.
October 2020: Stop-start (PDF 312KB)
The Light Traffic Index bounced back 12.3% in September, while the Heavy Traffic lifted 4.1% as the Alert Level restrictions eased.
September 2020: All over the road (PDF 316KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 13.1% in August, while the Heavy Traffic fell 6.5% as the impact of the second COVID-19 outbreak weighed, including the roadblocks around Auckland.
August 2020: Back in business (PDF 316KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 5.6% in July, while the Heavy Traffic rose 2.7%. Light traffic in the month of July was 9.5% higher than the same month the previous year, while heavy traffic is up 10.2% on year-ago levels.
July 2020: An oasis of (near) normality (PDF 312KB)
The Light Traffic Index lifted 28% in June. The Heavy Traffic rose 14.5%. Overall traffic is nearly back to year-ago levels.
June 2020: Jump start (PDF 256KB)
In May the Light Traffic Index recovered more than half of its April fall, but it was still 37% lower than last May for the month as a whole. The Heavy Traffic bounced more, and is 7.8% lower than May 2019.
May 2020: STOP (PDF 256KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 71.1% m/m in April, while the Heavy Traffic fell 45.0% m/m. The month included 27 days of Level 4 lockdown and 3 days of Level 3.
April 2020: Anything but BAU (PDF 252KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 29.3% m/m in March, while the Heavy Traffic fell 8.0% m/m. The month included nearly a full week of Level 4 lockdown.
March 2020: Still BAU around most of the country (PDF 263KB)
The Light Traffic Index fell 0.7% m/m in February, while the Heavy Traffic fell 3.0% m/m, after a sharp lift the previous month
February 2020: Strong start (PDF 260KB)
The Light Traffic Index rose 2.0% m/m in January, unwinding its December drop, while the Heavy Traffic jumped 4.8% m/m, after two weaker months.
January 2020: December dip (PDF 264KB)
In December, the Light Traffic Index fell 2.0% m/m, while the Heavy Traffic fell 2.5% m/m, on top of a fall in November. Annual growth in light traffic is still lifting but that of heavy traffic has now plateaued.