ANZ Business Outlook survey

Business confidence rose 10 points to +61 in September, while expected own activity lifted 8 points to +45.

Experienced own activity rose 4 points to -19, led higher by retail and construction, but experienced employment fell 5 points to -20. 

Pricing intentions rose 2 points to a net 43% of firms intending to raise prices soon. The average amount by which they intend to raise them was steady at 1.6%. Inflation expectations were flat at 2.9%. 

Business confidence soared 23 points to +51 in August, the highest level in a decade. Expected own activity jumped 21 points to +37, a 7-year high. Experienced own activity rose just 1 point to -21, still very weak. 

The large increases in confidence and activity expectations (including employment and investment intentions) were evident already in the responses gathered at the very beginning of August. The roughly one third of responses that came in after the Reserve Bank cut the OCR didn’t change the results a great deal.

Pricing intentions rose 3 points to a net 41% of firms intending to raise their prices in the next three months. The amount by which they intend to raise them ticked up from 1.4% to 1.6%. Inflation expectations dipped from 3.2% to 2.9%, their first sub-3% read since July 2021.

Business confidence jumped 21 points to +27 in July, and expected own activity lifted 4 points to +16. To be fair, these up/down responses are relative to an ever-weaker starting point (past own activity dropped 6 points to -24), so there’s a bit of a “well, can’t get any worse” vibe to it. 

Pricing intentions lifted 3 points to 38, but inflation expectations eased from 3.5% to 3.2%. Inflation indicators were softer in the later sample.

Business confidence fell 5 points to +6 in June. Expected own activity was unchanged at +12, while past activity was flat at -18. Pricing intentions fell 7 points to 35, with a sharp fall in the expected magnitude of price increases as well. Cost expectations also dipped, and inflation expectations eased from 3.6% to 3.5%.

Business confidence fell 4 points to +11 in May. Expected own activity fell 2 points to +12, and past own activity lifted 2 points to -18. Activity indicators improved for the manufacturing sector off weak levels, but were mixed to weaker elsewhere. There was a welcome easing in inflation indicators. Pricing intentions fell 5 points to 42 while inflation expectations eased from 3.8% to 3.6%.

Business confidence fell 8 points to +15 in April. Expected own activity fell 9 points to +14, and past own activity dropped 13 points to -20. Pricing intentions increased 2 points to 47 while inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Cost and wage pressures remain very high.

Business confidence fell 12 points to +23 in March. Expected own activity fell 7 points to +23. Past activity eased 2 points to -7. Pricing intentions eased a little and inflation expectations fell from 4.0% to 3.8%. Cost and wage pressures remain very high, however.

Business confidence eased 2 points to +35 but expected own activity rose 4 points in February. Reported past activity has a good correlation to GDP. It rose 1 point this month but is still in the red at -5. Inflation expectations fell from 4.3% to 4.0%. Pricing intentions eased from 50% to 48%, continuing their sideways trend of recent months.

Business confidence rose 4 points to +37 in January, while expected own activity fell 3 points to +26. The recent dramatic lift in residential construction gave up quite a bit of ground this month. Inflation expectations took a step lower, but the proportion of firms expecting to raise their prices remains stubbornly high.

December 2023: We wish you a merry Christmas (PDF 1.82MB)
Business confidence rose 2 points to +33 in December. Expected own activity rose 3 points to +29. The vast majority of indicators lifted, including the backward-looking measures. Inflation expectations took a decent step lower, but the proportion of firms expecting higher costs and the proportion intending to raise their prices both rose. Indeed, pricing intentions are the most reliable lead indicator for inflation, and they have stopped falling in recent months.

 

November 2023: Another month of honeymoon (PDF 1.35MB)
Business confidence lifted another 8 points to +31 in November. Expected own activity rose 3 points to +26. For much of the sample this is their first survey response since the election. Inflation indicators were a little mixed. The fall in economy-wide pricing intentions has stalled, but they continue to trend lower for retailers.

 

October 2023: (Almost) All in the Black (PDF 1.23MB)
Business confidence jumped 21 points to +23 in October. Expected own activity rose 12 points to +23. Activity indicators jumped in the early-month sample and jumped again in the second half of the month. Inflation indicators were mixed – the RBNZ needs to see more progress.

 

September 2023: Hanging in there (PDF 1.48MB)
Business confidence rose 6 points to +2 in September. Expected own activity was flat at +11. Many activity indicators slipped a little. Inflation expectations fell slightly to finally fall below 5%. There’s still a long way to go, but things continue to move slowly in the right direction. 

 

August 2023: Goldilocks is in the building (PDF 1.19MB)
Business confidence lifted another 9 points in August to -4, the highest read since mid-2021. Expected own activity also jumped 10 points, to +11. All activity indicators lifted. But we can have our cake and eat it too, for now, at least: inflation indicators continued to ease. 

 

July 2023: Running an orange light (PDF 1.16MB)
Business confidence lifted another 5 points in July to -13, the highest read since September 2021. Expected own activity eased 2 points to +1. The economy is slowing, but certainly not coming to a sudden stop. Inflation indicators mostly crept slightly lower, but cost expectations lifted, and the proportion of firms expecting to raise wages increased.

 

June 2023: A sigh of relief (PDF 1.47MB)
Business confidence leapt 13 points in June to -18, the highest read since November 2021. Expected own activity jumped 8 points to +3; hardly strong, but the first time in 14 months that it’s been in the black. Inflation indicators generally eased. Reported inward freight disruption fell to a fresh low.

 

May 2023: Prepared for the worst; hoping for the best (PDF 1.26MB)
Business confidence and expected own activity both lifted in May. Business confidence lifted 13 points from -43.8 to -31.1, while expected own activity rose from -7.6 to -4.5. Inflation indicators generally eased, though cost expectations remain stuck at very high levels.

 

April 2023: On track (PDF 1.34MB)
Business confidence and expected own activity were all but unchanged in April. Inflation indicators continue to fall, as the RBNZ will be expecting, given their forecast for inflation to fall steadily over the next year.

 

March 2023: RBNZ gaining traction (PDF 1.60MB)
Business confidence was unchanged in March at -43, and expected own activity was flat at -9. Inflation indicators continue to inch lower – going in the right direction, albeit painfully slowly.
 

February 2023: Battling on (PDF 1.29MB)
Business confidence lifted another 9 points in February to -43. Expected own activity also lifted 7 points to -9. Pricing intentions continue to inch lower but inflation expectations remain stuck around 6%. There was a marked drop in expected wage growth, however. There was little difference between the early-month and late-month responses.
 

January 2023: A slightly happier New Year (PDF 1.61MB)
Business confidence bounced 18 points in January as the shock of the November Monetary Policy Statement wore off a bit. Expected own activity also bounced, up 10 points to -16. Inflation pressures remain intense. Pricing intentions rose 3 points, and cost expectations rose 7 points. Inflation expectations remain stuck around the 6% mark. There’s good reason for the RBNZ to keep hiking a while yet (we are picking +50bp in February).

December 2022: Shock value (PDF 1.89MB)
Business confidence plummeted to a fresh record low in December, down 13 points to -70. Expected own activity fell from -14 to -26. The RBNZ appears to have achieved shock value with its sharp increase in the OCR, hawkish forecasts, and warning of deliberate recession in 2023. Many indicators are around Global Financial Crisis (GFC) lows. Inflation pressures remain intense. Wage expectations jumped.

 

November 2022: Inflationary stress (PDF 1.22MB)
Business confidence fell 14 points in November to -57, while expected own activity fell 11 points to -14, only 8 points shy of 2009 lows. Activity indicators fell. Residential construction intentions tanked. Employment intentions were negative for the first time since Oct 2020. Inflation pressures remain intense, though pricing intentions eased.

 

October 2022: Still wary (PDF 1.22MB)
Business confidence fell 6 points in October to -43, while expected own activity dipped 1 point to -3. Most forward-looking activity indicators slipped a little, though residential construction intentions lifted. Responses received after the unexpectedly strong CPI data were weaker on average. Inflation pressures remain intense. Pricing intentions are gradually easing but are not yet indicating a meaningful fall in inflation.

 

September 2022: Creeping higher (PDF 1.50MB)
Business confidence lifted another 11 points in September to -37, while expected own activity rose 2 points to -2. Most activity indicators lifted for a third month, with residential construction the outlier. Inflation pressures are easing at a snail’s pace.

 

August 2022: Off the floor (PDF 1.21MB)
Business confidence lifted 9 points in August to -48, while expected own activity rose 5 points to -4. Most activity indicators lifted for a second month, with capacity utilisation a marked exception. Inflation pressures remain intense. Inflation expectations were all but unchanged at their highs, and the net proportion of firms expecting higher costs was steady. However, pricing intentions eased 4 points.

 

July 2022: Holding pattern (PDF 1.30MB)
Business confidence bounced 6 points in July to -56.7, while expected own activity was little changed at -8.7. Most activity indicators were little changed, but residential construction intentions plummeted again to a fresh record low. Inflation pressures remain intense, but may be topping out.

 

June 2022: On the skids (PDF 1.54MB)
Business confidence fell 7 points to -63% in June, while expected own activity fell 4 points to a net 9% expecting lower activity ahead. The suite of activity indicators were weaker across the board. Expected profitability is particularly dire. Supply-side issues continue to dominate the list of firms’ biggest problems, consistent with inflation pressures that are still intense.

 

May 2022: Slipping (PDF 1.30MB)
Business confidence fell 14 points in May to -55.6, while own activity fell 13 points to -4.7. Activity indicators were mixed, with small falls dominating. Residential construction intentions continue to dive. Inflation pressures remain intense, but with signs of topping out.

 

April 2022: Starting to deconstruct inflation? (PDF 1.20MB)
Business confidence remained very low in April, while own activity lifted another 5 points, as Omicron disruption waned. Activity indicators were mixed. Inflation pressures remain intense, with inflation expectations sharply higher, though pricing intentions eased slightly. There are clear signs of easing inflation pressure in the construction sector.

 

March 2022: Decidedly unbouncy (PDF 1.29MB)
Business confidence recovered 10 points in March, while own activity lifted 5 points, compared to February. Both remain considerably lower than at the end of last year. Activity indicators generally lifted slightly across the board, with the marked exception of residential building intentions, which tanked. Inflation pressures continue to intensify and broaden to every corner of the economy. Measures are simply off the charts.

 

February 2022: Worst of both worlds (PDF 1.13MB)
Headline business confidence tanked 28 points, while own activity fell a more modest 14 points, compared to December. Activity indicators were weaker across the board. Inflation pressures continue to intensify, with inflation expectations and pricing intentions hitting fresh record highs.

December 2021: A very wary Christmas and a busy New Year (PDF 1.39MB)
Headline business confidence fell 7 points in December, while own activity fell 3 points. Finding labour remains firms’ biggest problem, and is getting worse, while freight disruptions are also having a growing impact.

 

November 2021 - Final: Mixed bag (PDF 1.01MB)
Headline business confidence fell 3 points, while own activity fell 7 points, compared to October. However, some activity measures improved slightly compared to the preliminary November results. Inflation pressures remain intense.

November 2021 - Prelim: Warier (PDF 596KB) 
All forward-looking activity indicators except employment intentions fell in the preliminary November Business Outlook survey. Inflation expectations soared to 4.33% following the strong CPI print.

October 2021 - Final: Still holding on (PDF 1.07MB) 
Cost and inflation pressures are off the charts. Inflation expectations jumped almost half a percent to 3.45% due to the strong CPI data. Survey indicators are still fairly robust but cracks are appearing. The resilience of Auckland businesses is impressive but this survey won’t capture cumulative balance sheet damage.

October 2021 - Prelim: Fortitude (PDF 600KB) 
The preliminary October ANZ Business Outlook continued a story of remarkable resilience. Business confidence eased 2 points to -9, but own activity jumped 6 points to 26.

September 2021 - Final: Holding on (PDF 1.16MB)
Forward-looking activity indicators remain remarkably robust, including in Auckland. Inflation pressures remain intense.

September 2021 - Prelim: Growth mindset (PDF 604KB)
The preliminary September read of the ANZ Business Outlook showed resilience. Business confidence rose 7 points to -7.0, while own activity was mostly unchanged, with a net 18% of firms expecting to increase activity.

August 2021: Sitting tight (PDF 1.14MB)
Initial responses after level 4 lockdown look encouragingly robust, but it’s early days. Business confidence fell 10 points; own activity 7. We will once more publish preliminary survey results from next month.

July 2021: Magma rising (PDF 484KB)
In July, headline business confidence eased 3 points, while firms’ own activity fell 6 points to +26%. Other activity indicators generally eased a little.

June 2021 - Final: Inflation pressures continue to build (PDF 500KB) 
Compared to May, headline business confidence eased 3 points while firms’ own activity rose 5 points to +32%. Inflation pressures remain intense. Retail pricing intentions soared.

June 2021 - Prelim: Inflation pressures off the charts (PDF 420KB) 
The preliminary June read of the ANZ Business Outlook showed a 2-point fall in business confidence but a 2-point lift in own activity expectations.

May 2021 - Final: May be peaking? (PDF 484KB) 
Compared to the preliminary May read, headline business confidence was 5 points lower at +2%, while firms’ own activity was also 5 points lower at +27%. Both are still higher than April.

May 2021 - Prelim: A slight smell of burning (PDF 416KB) 
The preliminary May read of the ANZ Business Outlook showed an 9 point jump in business confidence and a 10-point leap in firms’ own activity expectations. All the sub-components also showed solid lifts.

April 2021 - Final: Bouncing back (PDF 496KB) 
Compared to the preliminary read, headline business confidence jumped 6 points in April to a net -2%, and firms’ own activity lifted 6 points to +22%. All activity indicators were much higher in the late-month sample than in the preliminary read.

April 2021 - Prelim: Cost plus (PDF 412KB) 
The preliminary April read of the ANZ Business Outlook showed a 4-point fall in business confidence and unchanged own activity expectations.Pricing expectations hit a new high, in data that goes back to 1992. 

March 2021 - Final: Slipping (PDF 464KB) 
Compared to February, headline business confidence fell 11 points to a net -4%, while firms’ own activity outlook fell 4 points to 17%.

March 2021 - Prelim: A mix of ups and downs (PDF 308KB) 
The preliminary March read of the ANZ Business Outlook showed a fall in business confidence and own activity expectations, but the details were mixed. Cost and inflation indicators continue to lift.

February 2021 - Final: Steady (PDF 384KB) 
Headline business confidence fell a couple of points to net 7.0%, while firms’ own activity outlook eased 1 point to 21.3%. 

February 2021 - Prelim: Activity up, but costs and prices up more (PDF 276KB) 
The preliminary February read of the ANZ Business Outlook showed a further lift in activity indicators – but a sharp lift in costs, dampening profitability. 

December 2020 - Final: Merrily on high (PDF 352KB)
Headline business confidence, at 9.4%, is up a whopping 16 points and back in the black for the first time since August 2017. Own activity was 13 points higher, at +21.7%, its highest level since March 2018.

November 2020 - Final: Upswing (PDF 340KB)
Headline business confidence, at -6.9%, was 9 points higher than the early-month November read, while own activity was 4 points higher, at +9.1%.

November 2020 - Prelim: Stable (PDF 276KB)
The preliminary November read of the ANZ Business Outlook and activity were unchanged at -16% and +5% respectively. Investment intentions dipped, but capacity utilisation, one of the best GDP indicators in the survey, lifted 8 points.

October 2020 - Final: Finding its level (PDF 348KB)
Headline business confidence, at -15.7%, was 1 point lower than the early-month read, while own activity was 1 point higher, at +4.7%. Investment and employment intentions and profit expectations were also broadly stable.

October 2020 - Prelim: Party like it’s 2019 (PDF 276KB)
The preliminary October read of the ANZ Business Outlook continued to show solid improvement across the board. Business confidence lifted 14 points to -15%, while own activity lifted 9 points to +4%.

September 2020 - Final: Hanging in there (PDF 372KB)
Activity indicators in the ANZ Business Outlook survey lifted a little further from their early-September preliminary reads. Headline business confidence, at -28.5%, was a smidgen lower than the early-month read, but own activity was higher, at -5.4%. Investment and employment intentions and profit expectations also crept higher.

September 2020 - Prelim: We got this (PDF 280KB)
The preliminary September read of the ANZ Business Outlook suggests firms are largely looking through the re-emergence of COVID-19 in the community. Business confidence lifted 16 points to -26%, while own activity lifted 8 points to -10%. 

August 2020 - Final: Feeling the pressure (PDF 348KB)
Activity indicators in the ANZ Business Outlook survey slipped a little from their early-August preliminary reads, but on the whole, were relatively robust to the re-emergence of COVID-19 in the community on 12 August. Headline business confidence, at -41.8%, was little changed from the early-month read, as was own activity, at -17.5%.

August 2020 - Prelim: Teetering (PDF 280KB)
The preliminary August read of the ANZ Business Outlook adds to the evidence that the post-lockdown rebound may have run its course. Business confidence deteriorated 10 points to -42.4%, and own activity slipped 8 points to -17%. However, it wasn’t all one-way traffic in the indicators.

July 2020 - Final: Pause or stall? (PDF 280KB)
Headline business confidence was at -32%, slightly lower than the preliminary read of -30% but better than June’s -34%.

July 2020 - Prelim: Bouncing back (PDF 280KB)
Business confidence lifted another 4.6 points to -29.8% in the preliminary July read of the ANZ Business Outlook survey. The lift in own activity was much sharper, up 19.1 points to a net 6.8% of firms expecting lower activity for their firm in the year ahead.

June 2020 - Final: Nearly up to normal recession levels (PDF 296KB)
A vigorous bounce out of lockdown is evident in the numbers, but the levels are consistent with our view that the recession is just starting. Headline business confidence stabilised over June, similar to the preliminary read at -34%.

June 2020 - Prelim: Steady improvement (PDF 220KB)
Business confidence lifted another 9 points to -33% in the preliminary June read of the ANZ Business Outlook survey. Own activity lifted 10 points, with a net 29% of firms expecting lower activity for their firm in the year ahead.

May 2020 - Final: One step at a time (PDF 248KB)
Headline business confidence continued to lift over May, up a further 4 points to -42%. A net 39% of firms expect weaker activity for their own business, still well below 2008/09 lows. The retail sector is the most pessimistic on this front.

May 2020 - Prelim:  Dusting ourselves off (PDF 220KB)
Business confidence jumped 21 points to -46% in the preliminary May read of the ANZ Business Outlook survey. Own activity lifted 13 points, with a net 42% of firms expecting lower activity for their firm in the year ahead.

April 2020 - Final: Past the extreme lows (PDF 248KB)
Results for the full month of April were slightly less bleak than the early-month results released on the 8th. Compared to March, April headline business confidence fell a further 3 points to -67%, but this was a small improvement versus the preliminary April read of -73%.

April 2020 - Prelim: Unprecedented (PDF 216KB)
Business confidence fell 9 points to -73% in the preliminary April read of the ANZ Business Outlook survey. Expected own activity plummeted 34 points, with a net 61% of firms now expecting lower activity for their firm in the year ahead. We’ve never seen numbers like these.

March 2020 - Final: Steep slide (PDF 244KB)
Headline business confidence plummeted 45 points to -64 in March, close to a record low. A net 27% of firms expect weaker activity for their own business (down 39), the lowest read ever (the survey began in 1988).

March 2020 - Prelim: Export woes (PDF 212KB)
The preliminary March read on all key activity indicators fell from February levels. Pricing indicators also dropped. Firms’ activity intentions are the lowest since 2009. Export intentions, at -21.5%, are at a record low.

February 2020: Sound the alarm (PDF 248KB)
Headline business confidence fell 6 points to -19 in February. A net 12% of firms expect stronger activity for their own business (down 5). Survey responses received after the COVID-19 outbreak hit the headlines (about a third of all responses) were more negative.

December 2019: Merrier (PDF 264KB)
Headline business confidence jumped another 13 points in December, while a net 17% of firms expect stronger activity ahead (up 4).

November 2019: Happier (PDF 232KB)
Headline business confidence jumped 16 points to a net 26% of respondents reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead. Firms’ expectations for their own activity over the year ahead, a better economic indicator, rose 17 points to +13.

October 2019: Trick or treat? (PDF 228KB)
Headline business confidence jumped 12 points to -42% in the October ANZ Business Outlook. Firms’ views of their own activity fell 2 points to -4%.

September 2019: Slip sliding away (PDF 228KB)
Headline business confidence fell 2 points to -54% in the September ANZ Business Outlook. Firms’ views of their own activity fell 1 point to -2%. 

August 2019: Nothing good to say about it (PDF 228KB)
Headline business confidence fell another 8 points to -52% in the August ANZ Business Outlook. Firms’ views of their own activity fell 6 points to -1%. 

July 2019: Grim (PDF 224KB)
Headline business confidence fell 6 points to net -44% in July’s ANZ Business Outlook. Firms’ views of their own activity fell 3 points to +5%, the lowest read since August last year. Other activity indicators were also weaker.

June 2019: Consistent (PDF 220KB)
In the June ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence fell 6 points, with a net 38% of respondents reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead, as in April.

May 2019: A decidedly mixed bag (PDF 228KB)
In the May ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence lifted 6 points, with a net 32% of respondents reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead. 

April 2019: Stable (PDF 236KB)
In the April ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence was flat with a net 38% of respondents reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead. Firms’ expectations for their own activity lifted 1 point to a net 7% expecting a lift. Agriculture is now the most optimistic sector, while retail remains the least. 

March 2019: A trouble shared (PDF 244KB)
In the March ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence fell 7 points. A net 38% of respondents reported that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead. Firms’ expectations for their own activity eased 5 points to a net 6% expecting a lift. The services sector is the most optimistic, retail the least.  

February 2019: Stalled (PDF 248KB)
In the February ANZ Business Outlook Survey headline business confidence gave up around half its December gain. A net 31% of respondents reported that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate in the year ahead. Firms’ expectations for their own activity eased 3 points to a net 11% expecting a lift. The agriculture and services sectors are the most optimistic, construction the least.