ANZ Business Outlook survey

ANZ's Business Outlook survey shows the results of a monthly survey including hundreds of businesses nationwide. 

About the survey

ANZ Business Outlook analyses where the economy will be going over the next 12 months. The publication is written for business people who can see at a glance how business confidence is stacking up, what export sales are up to, how the labour market is doing, and more.

The reports are available to read on screen or browse in a PDF format. You can view a PDF version of the survey questionnaire that we send to our respondents and the background information about the survey. 

The ANZ Business Outlook is a key leading barometer for the economy, relying on the input of New Zealand businesses which has proven to be very adept at picking economic developments.

Keen to take part?

If you would like to be part of the ANZ Business Outlook survey, please email, giving your email address, industry and the major region you operate in, we would love to hear your views.

2023 editions

November 2023: Another month of honeymoon (PDF 1.35MB)
Business confidence lifted another 8 points to +31 in November. Expected own activity rose 3 points to +26. For much of the sample this is their first survey response since the election. Inflation indicators were a little mixed. The fall in economy-wide pricing intentions has stalled, but they continue to trend lower for retailers.


October 2023: (Almost) All in the Black (PDF 1.23MB)
Business confidence jumped 21 points to +23 in October. Expected own activity rose 12 points to +23. Activity indicators jumped in the early-month sample and jumped again in the second half of the month. Inflation indicators were mixed – the RBNZ needs to see more progress.


September 2023: Hanging in there (PDF 1.48MB)
Business confidence rose 6 points to +2 in September. Expected own activity was flat at +11. Many activity indicators slipped a little. Inflation expectations fell slightly to finally fall below 5%. There’s still a long way to go, but things continue to move slowly in the right direction. 


August 2023: Goldilocks is in the building (PDF 1.19MB)
Business confidence lifted another 9 points in August to -4, the highest read since mid-2021. Expected own activity also jumped 10 points, to +11. All activity indicators lifted. But we can have our cake and eat it too, for now, at least: inflation indicators continued to ease. 


July 2023: Running an orange light (PDF 1.16MB)
Business confidence lifted another 5 points in July to -13, the highest read since September 2021. Expected own activity eased 2 points to +1. The economy is slowing, but certainly not coming to a sudden stop. Inflation indicators mostly crept slightly lower, but cost expectations lifted, and the proportion of firms expecting to raise wages increased.


June 2023: A sigh of relief (PDF 1.47MB)
Business confidence leapt 13 points in June to -18, the highest read since November 2021. Expected own activity jumped 8 points to +3; hardly strong, but the first time in 14 months that it’s been in the black. Inflation indicators generally eased. Reported inward freight disruption fell to a fresh low.


May 2023: Prepared for the worst; hoping for the best (PDF 1.26MB)
Business confidence and expected own activity both lifted in May. Business confidence lifted 13 points from -43.8 to -31.1, while expected own activity rose from -7.6 to -4.5. Inflation indicators generally eased, though cost expectations remain stuck at very high levels.


April 2023: On track (PDF 1.34MB)
Business confidence and expected own activity were all but unchanged in April. Inflation indicators continue to fall, as the RBNZ will be expecting, given their forecast for inflation to fall steadily over the next year.


March 2023: RBNZ gaining traction (PDF 1.60MB)
Business confidence was unchanged in March at -43, and expected own activity was flat at -9. Inflation indicators continue to inch lower – going in the right direction, albeit painfully slowly.

February 2023: Battling on (PDF 1.29MB)
Business confidence lifted another 9 points in February to -43. Expected own activity also lifted 7 points to -9. Pricing intentions continue to inch lower but inflation expectations remain stuck around 6%. There was a marked drop in expected wage growth, however. There was little difference between the early-month and late-month responses.

January 2023: A slightly happier New Year (PDF 1.61MB)
Business confidence bounced 18 points in January as the shock of the November Monetary Policy Statement wore off a bit. Expected own activity also bounced, up 10 points to -16. Inflation pressures remain intense. Pricing intentions rose 3 points, and cost expectations rose 7 points. Inflation expectations remain stuck around the 6% mark. There’s good reason for the RBNZ to keep hiking a while yet (we are picking +50bp in February).