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ANZ Economic News
ANZ Economic news reviews the latest key events in the New Zealand economy. As well as one-off events, the reports regularly include information on labour market conditions, gross domestic product, balance of payments, official cash rate changes, and the Government's finances.
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2021 editions
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2020 editions
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2019 editions
July
- 29 July 2021: Carbon markets 101: pricing climate change solutions (PDF 604kB)
- 28 July 2021: Labour market preview: Now hiring (PDF 608kB)
- 22 July 2021: Quarterly income GDP - A new lens (PDF 356kB)
- 21 July 2021: Tirohanga Aotearoa Hunga Māori Kore whai-mahi i te wā Mate Urutā (PDF 676kB)
- 21 July 2021: NZ Insight: Māori employment during COVID (PDF 696kB)
- 21 July 2021: RBNZ vs RBA policy divergence – inflation persistence key (PDF 564kB)
- 20 July 2021: NZ Forecast Update: Inflation with a 4-handle (PDF 540kB)
- 16 July 2021: CPI Review: Monstrous (PDF 556kB)
- 14 July 2021: RBNZ MPR Preview and OCR Call Change: LSAP ended, hike to come in August (PDF 344kB)
- 13 July 2021: CPI Preview: Top of the band (PDF 581kB)
- 7 July 2021: RBNZ MPR Preview and OCR Call Change: When the facts change (PDF 340kB)
- 7 July 2021: NZ Insight: The RBNZ can tick the labour market box (PDF 480kB)
- 6 July 2021: NZIER QSBO - Tighter and tighter (PDF 344kB)
- 2 July 2021: NZ Insight: The last days of the LSAP (PDF 488kB)
- 1 July 2021: NZ Forecast Update: Rapidly approaching full employment (PDF 476kB)
- 1 July 2021: NZ Insight: Container chaos and the impact on NZ primary producers (PDF 496kB)
June
May
- 26 May 2021: RBNZ MPS Review - Yikes, forecast hikes (PDF 348kB)
- 24 May 2021: Farmgate milk price forecasts at healthy levels (PDF 340kB)
- 20 May 2021: Budget 2021 - A touch more stimulus (PDF 488kB)
- 17 May 2021: RBNZ MPS Preview - A whiff of change in the wind (PDF 404kB)
- 10 May 2021: Budget 2021 Preview - Balancing act (PDF 416kB)
- 5 May 2021: Labour market - Undeniably stronger (PDF 536kB)
April
- 29 April 2021: Labour market preview - Participation puzzle (PDF 572kB)
- 21 April 2021: CPI Review - Mixed signals (PDF 552kB)
- 15 April 2021: CPI Preview - False positive (PDF 400kB)
- 14 April 2021: RBNZ MPR Review - Wait and watch, no worries (PDF 304kB)
- 13 April 2021: NZIER QSBO - A long way to go (PDF 336kB)
- 12 April 2021: Where to now for the LSAP? (PDF 440kB)
- 9 April 2021: Trans-Tasman travel - Bubbling over with excitement (PDF 344kB)
- 8 April 2021: RBNZ MPR Preview - Let the dust settle (PDF 336kB)
March
- 29 March 2021: NZ Insight - The road to full employment (PDF 348kB)
- 23 March 2021: NZ Housing Policy Changes - Recalibrating the demand pulse (PDF 336kB)
- 18 March 2021: NZ GDP - Shouldn't challenge the narrative (PDF 360kB)
- 11 March 2021: GDP Preview - It's complicated (PDF 356kB)
- 3 March 2021: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 300kB)
February
- 24 February 2021: RBNZ MPS Review - Something for everyone (PDF 332kB)
- 19 February 2021: NZ Insight - Climate change and the path ahead (PDF 492kB)
- 17 February 2021: RBNZ MPS Preview - Stay the course (PDF 312kB)
- 12 February 2021: NZ Insight - The path to normal (PDF 416kB)
- 3 February 2021: Labour market - Unambiguously better – no more OCR cuts required (PDF 280kB)
January
- 27 January 2021: Labour market preview - A bit revealing (PDF 324kB)
- 22 January 2021: CPI Review - Disruption boosts inflation (PDF 296kB)
- 19 January 2021: Farmgate returns to soften further (PDF 244kB)
- 19 January 2021: QSBO - Complicated feelings (PDF 244kB)
- 15 January 2021: CPI Preview - Better inflation outlook but weak starting point (PDF 304kB)
- 13 January 2021: NZ OCR call change - Just one more OCR cut in May, to 0.1% (PDF 288kB)
- 12 January 2021: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 268kB)
December
- 17 December 2020: NZ GDP - Two-speed economy (PDF 352kB)
- 16 December 2020: HYEFU Review - Books better, as expected (PDF 376kB)
- 10 December 2020: 2020 Half-Year Economic & Fiscal Update Preview (PDF 356kB)
- 9 December 2020: GDP Preview - Welcome to the rebound (PDF 344kB)
- 8 December 2020: The intergenerational divide (PDF 284kB)
November
- 8 December 2020: The intergenerational divide (PDF 284kB)
- 25 November 2020: Some cheer heading into Christmas - further OCR cuts becoming less likely (PDF 360kB)
- 19 November 2020: NZ Insight: RCEP - What is in it for New Zealand? (PDF 328kB)
- 16 November 2020: NZ Insight: Weighing it up - possible OCR paths (PDF 288kB)
- 13 November 2020: NZ Insight: Vaccines, volatility and eventualities (PDF 244kB)
- 11 November 2020: RBNZ MPS Review: Easy does it – OCR cuts slower, less certain (PDF 308kB)
- 9 November 2020: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 260kB)
- 5 November 2020: A downturn felt unevenly (PDF 288kB)
- 4 November 2020: RBNZ MPS Preview - RBNZ to focus on the FLP in the November MPS (PDF 304kB)
- 4 November 2020: Labour market review - Weaker, but could have been worse (PDF 276kB)
October
- 29 October 2020: Labour market preview - Modest deterioration expected (PDF 308kB)
- 23 October 2020: Q3 CPI Review - Not a great place to start (PDF 296kB)
- 22 October 2020: FLP to enter the RBNZ toolkit - how does that change the outlook for policy? (PDF 288kB)
- 20 October 2020: QSBO: Coming out the gate strong (PDF 236kB)
- 14 October 2020: CPI Preview - Bump in the road (PDF 288kB)
- 8 October 2020: Household retrenchment a drag on growth that monetary policy is looking to offset (PDF 344kB)
September
- 23 September 2020: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review - No FLP-flopping (PDF 268kB)
- 22 September 2020: Negative OCR and Funding for Lending Programme FAQ (PDF 416kB)
- 17 September 2020: RBNZ MPR Preview - Hold the door (PDF 352kB)
- 17 September 2020: NZ GDP - On the money (PDF 415kB)
- 16 September 2020: PREFU 2020 Review - Big picture unchanged: colossal shock, colossal deficits (PDF 403kB)
- 10 September 2020: GDP Preview - One for the history books (PDF 340kB)
- 8 September 2020: PREFU 2020 Preview - Deja-PREFU (PDF 352kB)
August
- 28 August 2020: Freshwater regulatory change - clear vision but details murky (PDF 368kB)
- 19 August 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Renewed restrictions will hamper recovery (PDF 276kB)
- 18 August 2020: RBNZ to cut OCR 50bp to -0.25% in April (PDF 328kB)
- 12 August 2020: RBNZ MPS Review - Keeping the foot to the floor (PDF 276kB)
- 5 August 2020: Labour market review - Hard slog ahead (PDF 284kB)
- 4 August 2020: RBNZ to increase QE and weigh up other tools at August MPS (PDF 348kB)
July
- 31 July 2020: A straight-line recovery looks unlikely (PDF 332kB)
- 30 July 2020: Labour market preview - Still in the dark (PDF 292kB)
- 22 July 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Farmgate milk price (PDF 321kB)
- 16 July 2020: Q2 CPI Review - Inflation weak as a kitten (PDF 304kB)
- 13 July 2020: NZ Insight - Exchange rate a headwind (PDF 304kB)
- 13 July 2020: CPI Preview - Weak, but noisy (PDF 296kB)
- 8 July 2020: Negative OCR: What would it mean and how likely is it? (PDF 312kB)
- 7 July 2020: QSBO: Worrying (PDF 240kB)
- 1 July 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Current account outlook (PDF 316kB)
June
- 26 June 2020: Irrigation opportunities - Achieving more with less (PDF 264kB)
- 26 June 2020: More QE is on the way (PDF 272kB)
- 25 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update - Winter premiums squeezed for lamb and beef (PDF 260kB)
- 24 June 2020: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review - Keep calm and carry on (PDF 208kB)
- 18 June 2020: NZ GDP - Disruption in the data, but not to our view (PDF 160kB)
- 17 June 2020: RBNZ OCR Preview - In the 0.25 master's store (PDF 188kB)
- 16 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Farmgate milk price (PDF 264kB)
- 15 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Weak migration outlook (PDF 312kB)
- 11 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update and Q1 GDP Preview (PDF 288kB)
May
- 28 May 2020: Where to now with Quantitative Easing? (PDF 324kB)
- 28 May 2020: The recession is just beginning (PDF 224kB)
- 27 May 2020: RBNZ Financial Stability Report - Glass half full (PDF 176kB)
- 14 May 2020: NZ Budget 2020 - Big umbrella (PDF 308kB)
- 13 May 2020: RBNZ MPS Review - Putting it all on the table (PDF 192kB)
- 7 May 2020: RBNZ Quantitative Easing FAQ (PDF 376kB)
- 6 May 2020: RBNZ MPS Preview - QE hui (PDF 200kB)
- 6 May 2020: Labour market review - Standing idle (PDF 220kB)
- 5 May 2020: NZ Dairy Update - Defying gravity (PDF 296kB)
- 4 May 2020: Budget 2020 Preview - The end of the beginning (PDF 312kB)
- 1 May 2020: Q1 Labour Market Preview - Labour pains (PDF 232kB)
April
- 20 April 2020: CPI Review - Going out with a bang (PDF 244kB)
- 16 April 2020: CPI Preview - Downhill from here (PDF 232kB)
March
- 23 March 2020: RBNZ announces Quantitative Easing (PDF 192kB)
- 19 March 2020: GDP Outlook and Review - The good old days (PDF 264kB)
- 19 March 2020: RBNZ intervention urgently needed (PDF 236kB)
- 18 March 2020: Balance of Payments - Entering the slowdown (PDF 256kB)
- 17 March 2020: NZ Government COVID-19 Response Package (PDF 216kB)
- 16 March 2020: RBNZ delivers emergency 75bp OCR cut (PDF 184kB)
- 12 March 2020: NZ GDP Preview: Recession now looking highly probable (PDF 268kB)
February
- 28 February 2020: OCR cut odds rising rapidly (PDF 196kB)
- 12 February 2020: RBNZ MPS: Watch this space (PDF 248kB)
- 5 February 2020: RBNZ MPS Preview: Watch, wait – and worry (PDF 184kB)
- 5 February 2020: Labour market review: A strong finish for 2019 (PDF 220kB)
January
- 30 January 2020: Labour market preview: Offsetting forces (PDF 236kB)
- 24 January 2020: CPI Review: Close to target (PDF 244kB)
- 17 January 2020: CPI Preview: Within a whisker of the mid-point (PDF 232kB)
- 14 January 2020: QSBO: Feeling a little better (PDF 192kB)
December
- 19 December 2019: GDP: Through the worst (PDF 272kB)
- 18 December 2019: Balance of Payments: Contained (PDF 276kB)
- 11 December 2019: HYEFU Review: More spending, in time (PDF 316kB)
- 10 December 2019: GDP and BOP Preview: Finding a floor (PDF 264kB)
- 5 December 2019: RBNZ Bank Capital Decision and Change in OCR Call (PDF 184kB)
- 5 December 2019: HYEFU Preview: More capital from the capital (PDF 240kB)
November
- 27 November 2019: RBNZ FSR Review: No surprises there (PDF 168kB)
- 13 November 2019: RBNZ MPS: Hold up (PDF 252kB)
- 6 November 2019: Labour market review: There and back again (PDF 224kB)
- 5 November 2019: RBNZ MPS Preview: Sub-one (PDF 224kb)
October
- 31 October 2019: Labour market preview: Back up (PDF 236kB)
- 17 October 2019: Dairy Update: Onward and upward (PDF 272kB)
- 16 October 2019: CPI Review: Inner strength (PDF 244kB)
- 10 October 2019: CPI Preview: Falling short (PDF 236kB)
- 3 October 2019: Let's get fiscal (PDF 340kB)
- 1 October 2019: QSBO: Not getting down to business (PDF 192kB)
September
- 26 September 2019: Dairy update: No use crying over spilt milk (PDF 284kB)
- 25 September 2019: RBNZ OCR Review: Put on your happy face (PDF 196kB)
- 20 September 2019: RBNZ OCR Preview: Hold the door (PDF 202kB)
- 19 September 2019: GDP: Glass 0.5 empty (PDF 272kB)
- 18 September 2019: Balance of Payments: Pretty average (PDF 272kB)
- 12 September 2019: GDP and BOP Preview: Southerly winds (PDF 264kB)
- 6 September 2019: RBNZ OCR Call Change - Pedal to the metal (PDF 344kB)
- 5 September 2019: Dairy update: Downside risk to the milk price (PDF 256kB)
August
- 8 August 2019: Buying time (PDF 188kB)
- 7 August 2019: RBNZ MPS: Smack. (PDF 204kB)
- 6 August 2019: Labour market review: Surprisingly solid (PDF 224kB)
- 6 August 2019: RBNZ OCR Call Change - Turning sour (PDF 188kB)
July
- 31 July 2019: RBNZ MPS Preview: Take two (PDF 188kB)
- 31 July 2019: Labour Market Preview: Weakness filtering through (PDF 240kB)
- 16 July 2019: CPI Review: Over the hill (PDF 244kB)
- 11 July 2019: CPI Preview: As good as it gets (PDF 236kB)
- 8 July 2019: Forestry Update: Log prices crash (PDF 320kB)
- 2 July 2019: QSBO: Business blues continue (PDF 188kB)
June
- 26 June 2019: RBNZ OCR Review: Ready to roll (PDF 196kB)
- 21 June 2019: RBNZ OCR Preview: Holding pattern (PDF 188kB)
- 20 June 2019: GDP: A softer underbelly (PDF 272kB)
- 19 June 2019: Balance of Payments: Broadly stable (PDF 276kB)
- 13 June 2019: GDP and BOP Preview: Starting the year on a softer note (PDF 264kB)
May
- 30 May 2019: Budget 2019: Take it to the limit (PDF 296kB)
- 29 May 2019: RBNZ FSR Review: Resilient, but ... (PDF 168kB)
- 22 May 2019: Budget 2019 Preview: More than a feeling (PDF 264kB)
- 22 May 2019: Dairy update: Firm prices anticipated (PDF 264kB)
- 8 May 2019: RBNZ MPS: The first cut is the deepest (PDF 200kB)
- 2 May 2019: RBNZ MPS Preview: To be sure (PDF 184kB)
- 1 May 2019: Labour market review: Soft under the surface (PDF 224kB)
April
- 24 April 2019: Labour market preview: Stability (PDF 236kB)
- 17 April 2019: CPI Review: Running out of gas (PDF 236kB)
- 11 April 2019: CPI Preview: Final stand (PDF 232kB)
- 2 April 2019: QSBO: Business trip (PDF 188kB)
March
- 28 March 2019: RBNZ OCR Call Change: Sooner or later (PDF 208kB)
- 27 March 2019: RBNZ OCR Review: Lovey dovey (PDF 188kB)
- 22 March 2019: RBNZ OCR Preview: More of the same (PDF 188kB)
- 21 March 2019: GDP: Par (PDF 264kB)
- 20 March 2019: Balance of Payments: Three handle (PDF 264kB)
- 13 March 2019: GDP and BOP Preview: The new norm (PDF 148kB)
February
- 26 February 2019: Dairy update: Milk in the money (PDF 240kB)
- 13 February 2019: RBNZ MPS: Biding its time (PDF 196kB)
- 7 February 2019: RBNZ MPS Preview: Hold off, hold on (PDF 196kB)
- 7 February 2019: Labour market review: Back pay (PDF 224kB)
January
- 31 January 2019: Labour market preview: Is that your best offer? (PDF 240kB)
- 23 January 2019: CPI Review: In the mix (PDF 240kB)
- 16 January 2019: CPI Preview: Giving the slip (PDF 236kB)
- 15 January 2019: QSBO: In need of a caffeine hit (PDF 184kB)