ANZ Economic News
ANZ Economic News reviews the latest key events in the New Zealand economy. As well as one-off events, the reports regularly include information on labour market conditions, gross domestic product, balance of payments, official cash rate changes, and the Government's finances.
2022 editions
July
6 July 2022: NZ Insight - The low consumer confidence puzzle (PDF 1.30MB)
6 July 2022: RBNZ MPR Preview - One of the easier decisions (PDF 852KB)
5 July 2022: NZIER QSBO - Inflation blues (PDF 644KB)
June
16 June 2022: Q1 GDP - more COVID noise (PDF 836KB)
10 June 2022: Q1 GDP Preview - no capacity (PDF 424KB)
8 June 2022: He Waka Eke Noa recommendations for pricing agricultural emissions (PDF 324KB)
May
31 May 2022: NZ Agri Insight - Global food crisis to worsen (PDF 1.51MB)
25 May 2022: RBNZ MPS Review - On the warpath (PDF 604KB)
19 May 2022: Budget Review - Big Budget (PDF 448KB)
17 May 2022: NZ Insight - Emissions Reduction Plan (PDF 336KB)
17 May 2022: RBNZ MPS Preview - Take 2% (PDF 404KB)
12 May 2022: Budget Preview - Catch (Budget) 22 (PDF 452KB)
6 May 2022: Farmgate milk price forecasts revised down (PDF 360KB)
4 May 2022: Labour market - wage growth accelerates (PDF 656KB)
3 May 2022: NZ Insight - New fiscal rules (PDF 496KB)
April
28 April 2022: Labour market preview - May the labour force be with you (PDF 684KB)
21 April 2022: CPI Review - Domestic inflation intensifies (PDF 576KB)
13 April 2022: CPI Preview - Uncertain, but certainly too high (PDF 696KB)
13 April 2022: RBNZ MPR Review - Giving inflation no quarter (PDF 332KB)
12 April 2022: NZ Insight - How widespread is labour market tightness? (PDF 964KB)
12 April 2022: NZIER QSBO - Diminished capacity (PDF 648KB)
6 April 2022: RBNZ MPR Preview - Nifty 50 (PDF 432KB)
March
23 March 2022: NZ GDP Forecast Update - walking the tightrope (PDF 464KB)
22 March 2022: NZ Insight - the RBNZ’s inflation expectations headache (PDF 836KB)
17 March 2022: Q4 GDP - Getting real (PDF 572KB)
14 March 2022: NZ temp fuel tax changes knock 0.5% off Q2 CPI (PDF 472KB)
10 March 2022: Q4 GDP Preview - Rebound 3.5 (PDF 400KB)
9 March 2022: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 352KB)
8 March 2022: NZ OCR Call Change: back-to-back 50bp hikes in April and May (PDF 472KB)
8 March 2022: CPI Forecast Update - inflation now forecast to peak at 7.4% in Q2 (PDF 664KB)
4 March 2022: How is NZ's agri sector impacted by the Russian invasion (PDF 516KB)
1 March 2022: The Reopening II – shifting economic sands (PDF 684KB)
February
23 February 2022: RBNZ MPS Review - A hawkish hike (PDF 620KB)
15 February 2022: NZ Insight - Terms of trade: risks and opportunities (PDF 91KB)
15 February 2022: RBNZ MPS Preview - Hikes coming, "steady" or not... (PDF 347KB)
3 February 2022: Labour market forecast update - applying pressure (PDF 668KB)
2 February 2022: Labour market review - Another record low (PDF 732KB)
1 February 2022: Carbon markets 102 - what drives the carbon price? (PDF 440KB)
1 February 2022: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 324KB)
January
27 January 2022: Labour market preview - Unemployment - how low can you go? (PDF 604KB)
27 January 2022: CPI Review - Cost of living crunch (PDF 600KB)
20 January 2022: CPI Preview - High, but how high? (PDF 584KB)
19 January 2022: NZ OCR Call Change - 3% by April 2023 (PDF 688KB)
18 January 2022: NZIER QSBO - Fretting about inflation and Delta (PDF 676KB)
2021 editons
December
17 December 2021: NZ Insight - Endemic COVID-19 and labour supply (PDF 1.04MB)
16 December 2021: Q3 GDP - Only a 3.7% fall (PDF 580KB)
15 December 2021: 2021 HYEFU Review - Wind change (PDF 504KB)
9 December 2021: 2021 GDP Preview - Dale dug a(nother) hole (PDF 384KB)
8 December 2021: 2021 HYEFU Preview - Fiscal policy in a constrained economy (PDF 416KB)
2 December 2021: NZ Insight - The real cost of inflation (PDF 880KB)
November
30 November 2021: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 324KB)
26 November 2021: NZ Insight - The Reopening (PDF 492KB)
24 November 2021: RBNZ MPS Review - Quarter master (PDF 372KB)
17 November 2021: RBNZ MPS Preview - Take a(nother) hike (PDF 368KB)
17 November 2021: NZ Insight: What now for the LSAP portfolio? (PDF 336KB)
11 November 2021: NZ Insight - NZ-UK Free Trade Agreement (PDF 732KB)
3 November 2021: Labour market review - Time for a raise (PDF 668KB)
2 November 2021: NZ Insight - The ‘great resignation’ in New Zealand (PDF 816KB)
October
26 October 2021: Labour market preview - Muddying the water (PDF 600KB)
26 October 2021: NZ Insight - States of the world (PDF 448KB)
19 October 2021: NZ Forecast Update: More work for the OCR to do (PDF 552KB)
18 October 2021: CPI Review - Purchasing power under attack (PDF 599KB)
13 October 2021: CPI Preview - Close to the peak? (PDF 628KB)
7 October 2021: NZ farmgate milk price forecast revised over $8 (PDF 328KB)
6 October 2021: RBNZ MPR Review: Lift off into a stormy flight path (PDF 372KB)
5 October 2021: NZIER QSBO - Capacity constraints are biting (PDF 624KB)
September
29 September 2021: RBNZ MPR Preview: Lift off, take two (PDF 508KB)
21 September 2021: RBNZ Speech Review (PDF 393KB)
16 September 2021: NZ GDP - Strong starting point, but about to get noisy (PDF 572KB)
14 September 2021: Not just rugby: NZ beating Australia on wage growth (PDF 964KB)
10 September 2021: NZ Insight - Increasing the contingency fund (PDF 392KB)
9 September 2021: GDP Preview - Rollercoaster (PDF 408KB)
9 September 2021: What would it take to derail OCR hikes? (PDF 664KB)
August
25 August 2021: NZ Insight - A quick look at the high-frequency data (PDF 772KB)
20 August 2021: NZ Insight - Finding neutral (PDF 1.40MB)
20 August 2021: NZ Insight - Lockdown and the economic outlook (PDF 756KB)
18 August 2021: RBNZ MPS Review - Case sensitive (PDF 352KB)
11 August 2021: RBNZ MPS Preview - Lift off (PDF 496KB)
4 August 2021: Labour market review and OCR call change: Boiling point (PDF 612KB)
July
29 July 2021: Carbon markets 101: pricing climate change solutions (PDF 604KB)
28 July 2021: Labour market preview: Now hiring (PDF 608KB)
22 July 2021: Quarterly income GDP - A new lens (PDF 356KB)
21 July 2021: Tirohanga Aotearoa Hunga Māori Kore whai-mahi i te wā Mate Urutā (PDF 676KB)
21 July 2021: NZ Insight: Māori employment during COVID (PDF 696KB)
21 July 2021: RBNZ vs RBA policy divergence – inflation persistence key (PDF 564KB)
20 July 2021: NZ Forecast Update: Inflation with a 4-handle (PDF 540KB)
16 July 2021: CPI Review: Monstrous (PDF 556KB)
14 July 2021: RBNZ MPR Preview and OCR Call Change: LSAP ended, hike to come in August (PDF 344KB)
13 July 2021: CPI Preview: Top of the band (PDF 581KB)
7 July 2021: RBNZ MPR Preview and OCR Call Change: When the facts change (PDF 340KB)
7 July 2021: NZ Insight: The RBNZ can tick the labour market box (PDF 480KB)
6 July 2021: NZIER QSBO - Tighter and tighter (PDF 344KB)
2 July 2021: NZ Insight: The last days of the LSAP (PDF 488KB)
1 July 2021: NZ Forecast Update: Rapidly approaching full employment (PDF 476KB)
1 July 2021: NZ Insight: Container chaos and the impact on NZ primary producers (PDF 496KB)
June
May
26 May 2021: RBNZ MPS Review - Yikes, forecast hikes (PDF 348KB)
24 May 2021: Farmgate milk price forecasts at healthy levels (PDF 340KB)
20 May 2021: Budget 2021 - A touch more stimulus (PDF 488KB)
17 May 2021: RBNZ MPS Preview - A whiff of change in the wind (PDF 404KB)
10 May 2021: Budget 2021 Preview - Balancing act (PDF 416KB)
5 May 2021: Labour market - Undeniably stronger (PDF 536KB)
April
29 April 2021: Labour market preview - Participation puzzle (PDF 572KB)
21 April 2021: CPI Review - Mixed signals (PDF 552KB)
15 April 2021: CPI Preview - False positive (PDF 400KB)
14 April 2021: RBNZ MPR Review - Wait and watch, no worries (PDF 304KB)
13 April 2021: NZIER QSBO - A long way to go (PDF 336KB)
12 April 2021: Where to now for the LSAP? (PDF 440KB)
9 April 2021: Trans-Tasman travel - Bubbling over with excitement (PDF 344KB)
8 April 2021: RBNZ MPR Preview - Let the dust settle (PDF 336KB)
March
29 March 2021: NZ Insight - The road to full employment (PDF 348KB)
23 March 2021: NZ Housing Policy Changes - Recalibrating the demand pulse (PDF 336KB)
18 March 2021: NZ GDP - Shouldn't challenge the narrative (PDF 360KB)
11 March 2021: GDP Preview - It's complicated (PDF 356KB)
3 March 2021: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 300KB)
February
24 February 2021: RBNZ MPS Review - Something for everyone (PDF 332KB)
19 February 2021: NZ Insight - Climate change and the path ahead (PDF 492KB)
17 February 2021: RBNZ MPS Preview - Stay the course (PDF 312KB)
12 February 2021: NZ Insight - The path to normal (PDF 416KB)
3 February 2021: Labour market - Unambiguously better – no more OCR cuts required (PDF 280KB)
January
27 January 2021: Labour market preview - A bit revealing (PDF 324KB)
22 January 2021: CPI Review - Disruption boosts inflation (PDF 296KB)
19 January 2021: Farmgate returns to soften further (PDF 244KB)
19 January 2021: QSBO - Complicated feelings (PDF 244KB)
15 January 2021: CPI Preview - Better inflation outlook but weak starting point (PDF 304KB)
13 January 2021: NZ OCR call change - Just one more OCR cut in May, to 0.1% (PDF 288KB)
12 January 2021: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 268KB)
2020 editions
December
17 December 2020: NZ GDP - Two-speed economy (PDF 352KB)
16 December 2020: HYEFU Review - Books better, as expected (PDF 376KB)
10 December 2020: 2020 Half-Year Economic & Fiscal Update Preview (PDF 356KB)
9 December 2020: GDP Preview - Welcome to the rebound (PDF 344KB)
8 December 2020: The intergenerational divide (PDF 284KB)
November
8 December 2020: The intergenerational divide (PDF 284KB)
25 November 2020: Some cheer heading into Christmas - further OCR cuts becoming less likely (PDF 360KB)
19 November 2020: NZ Insight: RCEP - What is in it for New Zealand? (PDF 328KB)
16 November 2020: NZ Insight: Weighing it up - possible OCR paths (PDF 288KB)
13 November 2020: NZ Insight: Vaccines, volatility and eventualities (PDF 244KB)
11 November 2020: RBNZ MPS Review: Easy does it – OCR cuts slower, less certain (PDF 308KB)
9 November 2020: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 260KB)
5 November 2020: A downturn felt unevenly (PDF 288KB)
4 November 2020: RBNZ MPS Preview - RBNZ to focus on the FLP in the November MPS (PDF 304KB)
4 November 2020: Labour market review - Weaker, but could have been worse (PDF 276KB)
October
29 October 2020: Labour market preview - Modest deterioration expected (PDF 308KB)
23 October 2020: Q3 CPI Review - Not a great place to start (PDF 296KB)
22 October 2020: FLP to enter the RBNZ toolkit - how does that change the outlook for policy? (PDF 288KB)
20 October 2020: QSBO: Coming out the gate strong (PDF 236KB)
14 October 2020: CPI Preview - Bump in the road (PDF 288KB)
8 October 2020: Household retrenchment a drag on growth that monetary policy is looking to offset (PDF 344KB)
September
23 September 2020: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review - No FLP-flopping (PDF 268KB)
22 September 2020: Negative OCR and Funding for Lending Programme FAQ (PDF 416KB)
17 September 2020: RBNZ MPR Preview - Hold the door (PDF 352KB)
17 September 2020: NZ GDP - On the money (PDF 415KB)
16 September 2020: PREFU 2020 Review - Big picture unchanged: colossal shock, colossal deficits (PDF 403KB)
10 September 2020: GDP Preview - One for the history books (PDF 340KB)
8 September 2020: PREFU 2020 Preview - Deja-PREFU (PDF 352KB)
August
28 August 2020: Freshwater regulatory change - clear vision but details murky (PDF 368KB)
19 August 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Renewed restrictions will hamper recovery (PDF 276KB)
18 August 2020: RBNZ to cut OCR 50bp to -0.25% in April (PDF 328KB)
12 August 2020: RBNZ MPS Review - Keeping the foot to the floor (PDF 276KB)
5 August 2020: Labour market review - Hard slog ahead (PDF 284KB)
4 August 2020: RBNZ to increase QE and weigh up other tools at August MPS (PDF 348KB)
July
31 July 2020: A straight-line recovery looks unlikely (PDF 332KB)
30 July 2020: Labour market preview - Still in the dark (PDF 292KB)
22 July 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Farmgate milk price (PDF 321KB)
16 July 2020: Q2 CPI Review - Inflation weak as a kitten (PDF 304KB)
13 July 2020: NZ Insight - Exchange rate a headwind (PDF 304KB)
13 July 2020: CPI Preview - Weak, but noisy (PDF 296KB)
8 July 2020: Negative OCR: What would it mean and how likely is it? (PDF 312KB)
7 July 2020: QSBO: Worrying (PDF 240KB)
1 July 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Current account outlook (PDF 316KB)
June
26 June 2020: Irrigation opportunities - Achieving more with less (PDF 264KB)
26 June 2020: More QE is on the way (PDF 272KB)
25 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update - Winter premiums squeezed for lamb and beef (PDF 260KB)
24 June 2020: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review - Keep calm and carry on (PDF 208KB)
18 June 2020: NZ GDP - Disruption in the data, but not to our view (PDF 160KB)
17 June 2020: RBNZ OCR Preview - In the 0.25 master's store (PDF 188KB)
16 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Farmgate milk price (PDF 264KB)
15 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update: Weak migration outlook (PDF 312KB)
11 June 2020: NZ Forecast Update and Q1 GDP Preview (PDF 288KB)
May
28 May 2020: Where to now with Quantitative Easing? (PDF 324KB)
28 May 2020: The recession is just beginning (PDF 224KB)
27 May 2020: RBNZ Financial Stability Report - Glass half full (PDF 176KB)
14 May 2020: NZ Budget 2020 - Big umbrella (PDF 308KB)
13 May 2020: RBNZ MPS Review - Putting it all on the table (PDF 192KB)
7 May 2020: RBNZ Quantitative Easing FAQ (PDF 376KB)
6 May 2020: RBNZ MPS Preview - QE hui (PDF 200KB)
6 May 2020: Labour market review - Standing idle (PDF 220KB)
5 May 2020: NZ Dairy Update - Defying gravity (PDF 296KB)
4 May 2020: Budget 2020 Preview - The end of the beginning (PDF 312KB)
1 May 2020: Q1 Labour Market Preview - Labour pains (PDF 232KB)
April
20 April 2020: CPI Review - Going out with a bang (PDF 244KB)
16 April 2020: CPI Preview - Downhill from here (PDF 232KB)
March
23 March 2020: RBNZ announces Quantitative Easing (PDF 192KB)
19 March 2020: GDP Outlook and Review - The good old days (PDF 264KB)
19 March 2020: RBNZ intervention urgently needed (PDF 236KB)
18 March 2020: Balance of Payments - Entering the slowdown (PDF 256KB)
17 March 2020: NZ Government COVID-19 Response Package (PDF 216KB)
16 March 2020: RBNZ delivers emergency 75bp OCR cut (PDF 184KB)
12 March 2020: NZ GDP Preview: Recession now looking highly probable (PDF 268KB)
February
28 February 2020: OCR cut odds rising rapidly (PDF 196KB)
12 February 2020: RBNZ MPS: Watch this space (PDF 248KB)
5 February 2020: RBNZ MPS Preview: Watch, wait – and worry (PDF 184KB)
5 February 2020: Labour market review: A strong finish for 2019 (PDF 220KB)
January
30 January 2020: Labour market preview: Offsetting forces (PDF 236KB)
24 January 2020: CPI Review: Close to target (PDF 244KB)
17 January 2020: CPI Preview: Within a whisker of the mid-point (PDF 232KB)
14 January 2020: QSBO: Feeling a little better (PDF 192KB)